Where elections are an exercise in reading tea leaves

Date unknown: Singapore parliamentary elections

Singapore is approaching the tail end of a partial lockdown, scheduled to end on June 1. Students have transitioned to home-based learning, while telecommuting has become the norm for many office workers. Restaurants can provide only takeout or delivery and beloved bubble tea chains have shut down. With most shops shuttered, Singapore’s main shopping belt, Orchard Road, is eerily quiet. The government has introduced a new mandatory tracking system called SafeEntry, requiring users to scan QR codes and give out their name, identification number, and phone number before entering malls or shops. Serious discussions about the privacy trade-offs of this technology are outnumbered by media articles and quotes from politicians portraying these moves as advanced, efficient, and useful. 

These measures make it impossible to ignore the extraordinary times we’re living in. But in recent weeks, Singapore's vaunted response to the virus has taken a turn as the outbreak spread among migrant workers. There are 999,000 work permit holders in the country, including female domestic workers in households and other low-wage workers, but more than 320,000 of them are men living in dormitories, sleeping 10 to 20 in a room and sharing communal toilet and shower facilities. As of May 27, 30,623 of the 32,876 reported COVID-19 cases in Singapore come from these living spaces. 23 people have died from the virus, although none of them are migrant workers. 

Singapore’s migrant workers, many of whom come from Bangladesh, India, and China, labor on construction sites and shipyards, work in petrochemical refineries, or clean public housing estates. With work sites shut down, most are now confined to their rooms and lodgings. In these environments, where safe distancing isn’t feasible and cleanliness difficult to maintain, the virus has thrived. Singapore’s nicely flattened curve has moved sharply upward. 

The government has assured Singaporeans that we’re simply seeing “two separate infections,” with high numbers among migrant workers and far lower numbers among the rest of the population. This framing has perpetuated the segregation of migrant workers from the island’s other residents, a position that is further reflected in daily situation reports that distinguish between “community cases” and “dorm residents.”

In the midst of this, Singapore could be set for a snap election. But voters have no idea when it will happen.

The current electoral term doesn’t end until April 2021, but rumors suggest a general election will take place before then. Here in Singapore, we are used to this cyclical exercise in reading tea leaves. Early guesses had included September 2019, then March 2020; the last estimate, reported in April, was June 2020, but for now it’s not looking like that’ll happen either. While there’s still time before Singapore finds itself anywhere near a constitutional crisis, COVID-19 has made it even harder for anyone to make educated guesses about when we’ll head to the polls.

But even if the date remains unknown, the winner is all but determined. The electoral process in Singapore gives the ruling party a nearly insurmountable upper hand over challengers, who, due to a variety of factors, including restrictions on political donations and the long-term suppression of dissent, are less well-resourced and organized. Under Singapore’s election laws, the power to call an election lies with the prime minister, who begins the process by advising the president to dissolve Parliament. This is usually followed by a sprint to Polling Day. From 1959 to the present, the whole process from the dissolution to polling has usually been completed in under 20 days, with just two exceptions. The campaigning period itself is only about nine days long, with an additional “Cooling Off Day”—where campaigning and election advertising is restricted—on the eve of the vote. This means that while the incumbent party has advance warning, everyone else has to play catch-up.

It remains to be seen how the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases will affect the performance of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) at the polls. Chan Chun Sing, the minister for trade and industry, has commented on his hopes that Singaporeans will be “wise enough” to judge the government on long-term performance, rather than “on an episodic event.” In any case, he likely doesn’t have to worry too much: everyone knows the PAP will win. Singaporeans have voted them into government every election since 1959. 

A short election period isn’t the only way the playing field is skewed. There’s also the regular shifting of electoral boundaries and the Group Representation Constituency system (where teams stand for election in mega-constituencies) that make life harder for smaller, resource-strapped parties while intensifying the impact of a first-past-the-post system. In the 2015 general election, the PAP won about 70 percent of the vote but 93 percent of the elected seats.

Given the PAP’s popularity and structural advantages, no one in Singapore is going to bet against their victory in the upcoming vote, whenever it may be. The contest, then, is not about whether the PAP will emerge victorious; instead, it’s a question of how complete a victory they’ll be able to claim.

Earlier this year, when Singapore’s response to COVID-19 was celebrated as a model for the rest of the world, it looked like the prime minister was going to let off the starter’s pistol. The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee’s report—usually a clear sign of an impending election—was released on March 13, around the same time the government introduced restrictions on cultural, sports, and entertainment events involving at least 250 people.

Opposition parties, like the Workers’ Party (the only other political party elected to Parliament) or the Singapore Democratic Party, protested. (The latter is the party most willing to stand in solidarity with civil society activists, though distinctions between parties in Singapore are not very pronounced.) The Progress Singapore Party, led by a former PAP veteran, even went as far as suggesting a caretaker government to avoid holding elections during the pandemic. Social distancing rules are also likely to further disadvantage smaller parties who lack the PAP’s online reach and access to mainstream media outlets, which are widely seen as government-controlled.

But talk of elections vanished with the discovery of new clusters of COVID-19 in migrant worker dormitories. As Singapore turned from a success story into a cautionary tale about overlooking marginalized populations, activists, NGOs, researchers, and citizens have criticized the political leadership for the systemic neglect of migrant workers. After all, NGOs working on migrant labour rights had warned of this before the outbreak in the dorms was discovered. Singaporeans have also taken issue with PAP politicians who ventured out for PR stunts — distributing masks to food vendors who were already wearing masks, for example, while accompanied by a press photographer — even as ordinary citizens are subject to fines for breaching partial lockdown regulations. 

Now, it seems, the election will be delayed further.  Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing told Bloomberg TV in May that there’s “not much time” left, given that Parliament will have to be dissolved in January 2021.

To that end, the Parliamentary Elections (COVID-19 Special Arrangements) Act, introduced in April and passed a month later, is meant to address the particular circumstances in which a vote might have to be held. Under this new law, Singaporeans under quarantine orders will be excused from voting, which is otherwise compulsory. Those subjected to stay-home orders will be allowed to vote at special voting stations outside of their electoral division. Aspiring candidates will also be excused from attending nomination proceedings in person if they are subject to stay-home or (more restrictive) quarantine orders, or are in ill health.

But these provisions don’t account for other voters, such as overseas Singaporeans. Even during ordinary times, voting outside of Singapore can be a challenge: there are only 10 designated polling stations outside of the country, three of them in the United States. With travel restrictions and lockdowns of varying severity across the world, it might not be possible for voters abroad to reach a polling station. 

“I often feel like I don’t understand the purpose or the significance of voting in Singapore,” one voter based in South Africa told me. She pointed to the 2011 election, where the PAP turned in its worst post-independence performance by garnering 60% of the vote. Despite this, the party still won 81 of the 87 seats, continuing its overwhelming hold over Parliament.

The message hidden in the tea leaves is still unclear. There are many variables for the prime minister to consider: the high number of COVID-19 cases, the economic slowdown, the increasing anxiety for jobs and livelihoods—all of which could affect voter sentiment, and consequently, the margin of the PAP’s eventual triumph. Heng Swee Keat, the deputy prime minister, has hinted that it’ll be soon, telling a local broadcaster: "The sooner that we can deal with the longer term challenges, the better Singaporeans will emerge out of this, and Singapore will emerge stronger.”

But one can guess at the issues that won’t have a significant impact on the political contest, given Singaporeans’ habit of focusing on “bread and butter issues” such as jobs, wages, and the cost of living: surveillance, the oppression of dissent, and human rights.