28 elections, 6 trends
Elections around the world have slowed in the summer months, and our project is roughly at its halfway point.
Here’s what we’ve noticed so far:
1. A sick world strengthens autocracies
As countries around the world scramble to grapple with the coronavirus, leaders are using the occasion to consolidate their power. In Bolivia, the caretaker government led by Jeanine Áñez decided to extend its mandate while cracking down on protest. In Malaysia, the onset of the virus led to a change in government. Russian president Putin used the pandemic moment to extend his power and his presidency. Meanwhile, elections around the world have been postponed. And governments have used this moment to demonize and arrest journalists.
2. Unholy alliances
Populists and nationalists may tell voters that they are putting their country first. In reality they are building new forms of international diplomacy. In Slovenia, we see associates of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban buying up media companies; in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to leverage support from Trump. Isolationism is good rhetoric, but even nationalists don’t use it as policy.
3. Watch the center
Populism commands media attention, but it is most effective when it affects the center. What we’ve seen in elections around the world is that center-right parties follow the far-right to try to gain votes. Populist ideas are never more palatable than when they come from a centrist party. Some examples include centrists in Germany and Croatia. By contrast, when the far-right marginalized, it has a smaller influence. Take Iceland. A man in a MAGA hat ran for president, and won 7.62% of the votes.
4. Xenophobia is ascending
In India, Narendra Modi’s party introduced a new amendment that marginalizes Muslims, and then stood by as Muslim citizens were attacked in the street. In Slovakia, Roma communities were targeted for spreading COVID-19. In Poland, the Law and Justice party has campaigned on a platform of nationalism. Racism and nativism are part of the autocratic playbook, and in many countries pluralism is treated like wishful thinking.
5. Who needs hacking?
There are plenty of low tech ways to influence election results. These include: replacing poll numbers with a spreadsheet, paying people to inflate your petition, planting allies on the Constitutional Court; recording more votes cast than voters, pushing through a referendum without saying what it is, or simply changing the text your constituents have voted on.
6. Autocracy comes from above and not from below
It’s tempting to see growing authoritarianism as a sign that voters hate democracy. Quite the opposite. Some of the biggest crackdowns are in places where there’s strong opposition—places like Hong Kong, where a massive protest movement was followed by the criminalization of dissent, or Iran, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) massacred protestors using tanks last year. Protest movements deserve our attention, even when—or perhaps especially when—they are not successful.