Which way independence?

August 12-August 18: Bougainville general election

The autonomous region of Bougainville, located in the easternmost part of Papua New Guinea in the Solomon Sea, could soon become the newest and one of the smallest states on earth. 

The island, which is home to roughly 250,000 people, successfully held a referendum in 2019, with overwhelming results: 98% of voters voted to separate from Papua New Guinea after a long and brutal conflict spurred in large part by claims over the island’s natural resources.

To achieve full independence from Papua New Guinea, Bougainville needs to cross another hurdle: Holding an election for representatives who can put the independence process in place. The terms of separation need to be negotiated with Papua New Guinea, a difficult task for the new government. 

Bougainville, which was the location of the world’s largest copper and gold mine in the 1970s, was ravaged by civil war from 1988 to 1998. The war began after a dispute broke out between the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto—which controlled the mines in the region—and local indigenous communities. In 1988, Rio Tinto threatened to move into an untouched area of rainforest. Local indigenous women and children assembled at the Panguna mine site and tried to stop tractors from moving in. But Papua New Guinea’s government sided with Rio Tinto and sent the military in to quell the protests. The conflict that broke out lasted for a decade. As many as 20,000 people died. One historian has called the event in Bougainville the “most destructive and deadly conflict in the Pacific since World War II.”

A peace agreement signed after war’s end established a semi-independent government in the region, and made promises that the issue of Bougainville’s independence would be revisited in the future. Despite the war’s end, the island has not had an easy time since the conflict. It has been haunted by food and water shortages. The abandoned mine site of Panguna is still polluting local rivers, and the region has earned the nickname “the island of scars.” Bougainville has a young population: some 40% are under the age of 15. But the region’s primary students fall below the national averages in student performance for numeracy, literacy and writing.  

The 2001 peace agreement called for a referendum prior to 2020. Residents hope that an independent government will be able to start rebuilding the region.

Two candidates stand at the front of the race: Thomas Raviet, a retired colonel who is running as a candidate from the New Bougainville Party and has the support of current president and former Catholic Priest John Momis. 

He faces Jamis Tanis, who served as president of Bougainville from 2009 to 2010. Tanis was involved in the 2001 Peace Agreement that formally ended the war between Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. He has said that, as president, he wants to ensure that Bougainville achieves international recognition as an independent state.

Among the 25 candidates are also two women. One, Ruby Mirinka, has claimed that the region’s male-dominated political culture doesn’t reflect Bougainville’s traditional matrilineal kinship system. This traditional system has clashed with the legal system, especially in issues of land usage. As one woman stated in an Oxfam report, “In Bougainville we women own the land but it was the men who are speaking and negotiating on our behalf. We never got a chance to actually speak out.” 

One of the most pressing issues for the new president is also among the most sensitive: the possibility of reopening the Panguna mining site. Some want to reopen the mine. According to one estimate, the mine still holds $60 billion of gold, silver and copper.

But some politicians feel that, because of its history as the site of the civil war’s outbreak, Bougainville should treat the Panguna mine with caution: Memories of the mine still haunt survivors until to this day. There is little sense that it could be reopened safely.

“The Panguna Mine will be an important project for the future of Bougainville, but we need to do things in a way that everybody is happy,” Tanis, the candidate who was central to the 2001 Peace Agreement, has said.

(Women have been among those who have spoken out most firmly against the reopening of the mine. Three years ago, a group of “concerned mothers” led a protest against reopening.)

Another issue that presidential candidates face is China’s expansion in the region. President Momis, who is the former Papua New Guinea ambassador to China, has advocated for the creation of a Special Economic Zone, though no one has yet made clear what that Zone would do.

The question of China’s influence has shadowed the referendum since the start. The new state will be an economic and geopolitical battleground between China and Australia-New Zealand. 

Many believe that China supports Bougainnville’s move toward statehood because it hopes to fold the region into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which invests in economies around the world to establish stronger ties between them and China.

Last year, Sam Kauona, a well-known former commander in the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) exposed China’s master plan in Bougainville. On 60 Minutes Australia, he presented a giant satellite map containing China’s proposed development project in Bougainville with Chinese writings. “China is now the emerging country,” he said.

The US, Australia, New Zealand and Japan also provided $2 million to assist the referendum last year.

Still, Bougainville’s move for independence is being celebrated not just locally, but across the Pacific, and it may inspire more movements like it: The population of West Papua, a province of Indonesia, for example, has been closely following the developments in Bougainville. (Indonesia annexed West Papua in 1969; the region remains under tight military control, and is highly-prized by the Indonesian government for its natural resources.) Yan Christian Warinussy, a prominent human rights lawyer in West Papua, said in an interview with The Ballot that the peoples of both regions could learn from each other.  

Who will run Bougainville is still unknown, and it seems likely that the results will be delayed. The results of the election may be debated. 

The elections commission recently received a report that some people’s names were not on the electoral roll. Rumors spread on social media about possible tampering with ballot boxes, though what exactly has occurred is not entirely clear. The Bougainville police chief, Francis Tokura, has suspended one officer for the alleged case. The police have also conducted an investigation of several officers over alleged offenses.

Bougainville's Electoral Commissioner George Manu said in a statement sent to The Ballot that the ballot boxes only opened during the polling and when it transferred to the counting center later. “There may have been other issues or allegations raised, but as I always have said, I will only deal with complaints that have substantiated evidences.”

And so the residents of Bougainville continue to wait to build a new history, whatever it may be.